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Anand

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Four Reasons to Buy Gold



For ages gold has been one of the most sought after investment option for people. Be it investors like us or women of the household, gold has been one of the top priorities. Gold analysts have been boasting of the potential returns gold can provide over the past few years. Gold prices have been in an upswing ever since the market started to go down. The price of gold was Rs. 9,000/- for 10 grams in 2007 and Jan 2008 it was more than Rs. 10,000/- Last month the price of gold was nearly Rs. 15,000/- for the same quantity 10 grams. This is the all time high the price of gold has touched. Even now our gold analysts are continuing with their buy advice.

Gold is the only asset class that has provided consistent positive returns over the years. Especially in such testing times it has outperformed all other asset classes including the stock markets and real estate. Analysts feel that the price of gold would touch Rs. 18,000/- for 10 grams by the end of this year 2009.

Below are 4 compelling reasons for us to consider gold as an investment option for this year.

The Global Economy would remain affected

The world economy is in serious trouble and is likely to remain the same in the forthcoming months. The global growth forecast for this year is less than 1%. This is slowest growth forecasted in the global economy. We expected the growth to be around 2% for this year last year but our forecast proved to be wrong. A realistic estimate would be around 0.5 to 1%

In such difficult times gold becomes an automatic choice for our investors. Investors are searching for safe havens for their investment and with the kind of capital preservation gold offers; it is the number one choice. Some top mutual fund managers are worried about the trend in the market. Investors are buying gold like there is no tomorrow. This has further impacted the slowing economy and stock markets.

Because of the activity in the Gold ETF markets and the commodity markets the price of gold is constantly going up and a price of around 17,500 – 18,000 seems to be very possible.

US Dollar may depreciate against global currencies

The price of gold and the value of the dollar have an inverse relationship. If the value of the dollar drops, more dollars would be required to buy the same quantity of gold. So the value of gold stays unchanged but the devaluation of the dollar pushes its price up. If the dollar declines against other currencies it would decline against gold as well. This negative correlation may not be so evident on a daily or weekly basis but this would be very significant when checked on the long run.

Some analyst’s world wide feel that the US government may resort to printing more money in the coming months to tide over the financial crisis. This may have a negative impact on the economy. This could push up inflation and cause the price of the dollar to slide further. This would naturally push the price of gold further upwards.

Crude oil prices could bounce back to $65 a barrel

Gold and crude oil prices always move hand in hand. At least that is the general trend over the years. When the price of oil goes up it leads to high inflation which in turn makes gold an attractive investment option.

In July 2008 we saw oil touch an all time high of $147 per barrel and then it started slipping. The fall in crude prices was because of heavy drop in demand in the second half of 2008. In spite of this correction and its price reaching around $40 per barrel now, gold is still going up.

Analyst’s world wide feel that the price of oil may bounce back and reach around $65 - 70 per barrel. This puts gold in a sweet spot. It will be a good hedge against deflation if the economy does not improve and at the same time, it would be a good investment option to counter inflation. Either ways the price of gold would go up.

Global Demand for Gold would Exceed its supply

The demand for gold is around 3500 tonnes in a year. This includes gold required for jewellery, the commodity markets etc. but the production of gold is only around 2500 tonnes which brings us to a situation where there is a straight excess demand of nearly 1000 tonnes. Also gold mining countries worldwide are cutting down on their production owing to fears of the global recession. This would further fuel the demand for gold and its price would continue the upward movement.

What should we do now?

Don’t buy gold right away. Experts are expecting a correction in gold prices due to profit booking. Also there is a certain seasonality in the price of gold. Usually gold prices tend to peak out in March and then fall a bit before resuming its upward journey. So buy only 10-15% of what you plan to invest in gold and then wait for the correction. Once the correction happens, buy more. Buy in a staggered manner and do not invest all your money in one shot.

Also remember the importance of asset allocation. No asset class should have an inordinately large part in your investment. Decide on proper asset allocation and make sure that the fluctuation in prices of one asset does not affect the value of your portfolio heavily. An ideal allocation for this precious yellow metal would around 15% of your portfolio’s worth.


Happy Investing!!!

9 comments:

  1. Hai anand in which country the gold mines exit?will they will be any correction in gold in the folllowing days?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Gold mines exist in many countries. even india has a few. china is no.1, australia is no.2, and south africa is no.3.

    see this url

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_gold_production

    And - i dont foresee any gold price correction

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi anand i cannot understand the relation ship between dollar and gold...Can u explain me little bit clearly

    ReplyDelete
  4. @ Manjula

    Practically speaking there is no relation between the two. They are both two independent entities

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi anand one reason i understood clearly is demand is more and supply is low.....What are other three reasons why gold is increasing?

    ReplyDelete
  6. @ Manjula

    The other reasons dont directly interfere with the price of gold but have an indirect influence on its price as explained in this article

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi Anand,

    Your are giving wonderful explanations.Thanks a lot.
    can u suggest where we can invest on non physical gold (ETF ?)

    ReplyDelete
  8. @ Vijayprasad

    UTI, HDFC, Kotak, Reliance MF - all these fund houses sell Gold ETF's

    You can search your DEMAT account for their exact code and use them for buying gold ETFs.

    ReplyDelete
  9. It is recommended to find more desirable alternatives for your pension program. The presence of gold investment helps it to end up being a lot more profitable on your retirement plan since you do not have to be disturbed of decreasing its price. Find trusted sites like BuyGoldAssets to learn more about gold investment.

    ReplyDelete

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