On the back of a 9 month bull-run and an energized economy
which was becoming more popular among foreign investors, the Finance Minister
of India Mr. Jaitley had the enviable task of presenting the Indian Union
Budget for the financial year 2015-16. With all opposition parties and expert
critics closely watching his every move, this budget had a ton of expectations.
A few days back I had written an article titled “My Expectations from theIndian Union Budget 2015”.
With the budget presented in the parliament (and to the
public) its high time we stopped talking about expectations and get into the
details of the “Actuals” from the budget.
Before We Begin: Disclaimer
This article is purely a representation of the facts from
the Indian Union Budget 2015. The views in this article are entirely mine and
do not endorse/condone/criticize/support any political party whatsoever.
Overall Revenues and Expenditures – Budget 2015-16
In this coming financial year, the finance minister has
estimated that the overall revenue of the government will increase by about
14.49 lakh crores. This is about 15.8% higher than the government’s revenue from
the previous financial year (2014-15). The Overall expenditure is expected to
be around 17.7 lakh crores.
It is also estimated that the share given to the states
would go up by a massive 50% in the coming fiscal year. This means, state
governments will get about 5.24 lakh crores in funds as against the 3.48 lakh
crores they got in 2014-15.
One key point worth mentioning here is that, our defense
spending alone would amount to 2.47 lakh crores which is considerably higher
than last fiscal year.
The following are some key highlights of our Budget.
Highlight No. 1: Focus on Economic Growth and Infrastructure
Development Across India
If one thing was clear from this years budget, it was the
fact that the government is serious about bringing our economic growth back on
track as against the sluggish pace at which we were growing over the past
decade or so. Some of the key highlights of this budget that would aid Economic
Growth and Infrastructure Development across India are:
- Public Private Partnerships (PPP) projects proposed to
kick-start numerous infra projects totaling to about 70,000 crore rupees
- A National Investment Infrastructure Fund is proposed to be
set up
- Tax Free Infra Bonds are proposed to fund new rail, road and
irrigation projects in our country
- Approximately 1 lakh kms of roads expected to be built
- 5 ultra mega power projects with capacity of 4000 MW each
proposed
- Green Energy Sources (Renewable Energy) projects get a big
push. About 1.75 lakh MW Green Energy planned to be generated this year of
which 1 lakh MW from Solar 60,000 MW from Wind 10,000 MW from bio-mass and 5000
MW from small hydro power plants
- Expected Economic Growth In India to be around 8.1% to 8.5%
- Corporate Tax for companies will be reduced from 30% to 25%
over the next 4 years
- To enhance the start of and doing business in India, an
expert committee would be set up. The aim is to bring India from its 142nd
Rank (among 189) to the top 50 countries in the world to start and run
businesses.
- A comprehensive bankruptcy code which is at par with global
standards will be established
My Views:
It is good to see that the government is investing heavily
in improving our infrastructure facilities. It is also good to see that a major
focus has been placed on renewable/green energy sources. Reduction in Corporate
Taxes and improvement in the ease of doing business aspect can very well help
make the prime ministers vision of “Make in India” a reality.
Highlight No. 2: Agriculture and Rural Development
Everyone knows that Agriculture is the backbone of the Indian economy but still the farmer is languishing in poverty in spite of strong
economic growth in our country. In order to help the farmers, boost agriculture
and rural economy the budget proposes the following:
- Rs. 5,300 crores set aside to support micro irrigation
- 1 lakh crore set aside under various rural development
schemes
- Rs. 8.5 lakh crores set aside toward lending agriculture
credit
- A Unified National Agriculture Market is proposed to be set
up to give the farmer earn a fair chance to sell his produce.
- A Post Graduate Institute of Horticulture Research &
Education proposed to be set up in Amritsar.
My Views: As of now, the end consumer pays an exorbitant price for
most produce while the farmer gets only a miniscule portion of it. For ex:
Though the cost of good quality rice has exceed Rs. 30 per kilogram, the amount
that the farmer who is struggling to produce that rice is less than 25% of it. The
remaining 75% gets lost in the shuffle between the farmer and bringing this
rice to the consumer (you and me). This National Agri Market will be a welcome
boon to the farmer to earn a decent price for his produce.
On top of this, access to credit has been one of the key
troubling areas for farmers especially during seasons where monsoon/draught
plays spoil sport. The proposed funding of 8.5 lakh crore towards agricultural
lending can help our farmers get back on their feet
Highlight No. 3: Focus on Fiscal Consolidation
- The Government is expected to stick to its fiscal deficit
target of 4.1% of the country’s GDP. By the financial year 2016-17 the fiscal
deficit is expected to go down to 3.5% and by 2017-18 the government plans to reduce
the fiscal deficit to 3% of our GDP.
- The Government is also planning to raise about 41,000 crore
rupees by selling its stake from various government owned public sector
companies.
- A Gold Monetization Scheme proposed to keep our Current
Account Deficit at around the 1% mark.
- Inflation Rate expected to be around the 5%-6% range
My Views:With the governmental spending being much higher than the
proposed revenue, it is going to be difficult for the government to meet its
fiscal deficit target for this year. The good news is that our retail inflation
has come down considerably but this is not entirely due to the governments
steps. A big chunk of this reduction in retail inflation is due to
international crude oil prices coming down as well as reduction in commodity
prices. If crude prices start hiking up again, then it would be really
difficult to stick to the proposed retail inflation % range.
With numerous infrastructure projects already “In Progress”,
it would be a tough act for our government to maintain balance between the
existing projects and new proposed launches. With focus on renewable energy,
our power deficit may be fixed once and for all but this is a long term vision.
Renewable energy will not be up and running like traditional sources. With the
proposed launch of 4 ultra mega power plants, the deficit can be curbed but
these power plans will need undisturbed access to Coal which may be a problem. How
can a power plant generate power if it cant get enough coal? Lets hope that our
government has plans to address this situation and keep our infrastructure
growth on its feet running rather than slow down…
Highlight No. 4: Impact on End Consumers
Coming to the crucial part of the budget – the one that
impacts the common working class population of our country.
The government is proposing to increase the present service
tax + education cesses rate from 12.36% to 14%. This is definitely bad news for
consumers because – almost every service comes under the ambit of service tax
and we the consumer would have to shell out this additional 1.64% on those
services.
Excise duty on Aerated Drinks, Cigarettes and Tobacco has
been hiked once again which will make it even more costlier to people who use
them.
Customs Import Duty on 22 items have been reduced in order
to give a push to actually manufacture many products in India rather than just
import the end product for consumption.
My Views:This hike in Service Tax is going to impact us on a daily
basis. Almost everything is going to be costlier by about 1.6%. The government
has plans to spend humongous amounts on infrastructure and development projects
and hiking taxes is obviously the easiest way to increase the revenue. However,
I was expecting a simplified GST type system which will be not on transparent
but also easy to comprehend and implement.
The good news though is the hike in excise duty on tobacco
products and aerated drinks. With international cola makers setting up shop in
our country and pampering our sweet tooth with sugar loaded drinks which are
making us fat, this hike in excise duty will actually help us reduce this bad habit.
No comments on tobacco excise duty hike because – this is one of the standard
practices for every government. This not only helps the government make some
extra income but also makes smoking & using tobacco products that much
costly. This will help people quit this bad had and refrain people from taking
up this habit owing to its costliness.
Focus on Manufacturing the product in India by reducing
import duty on raw materials rather than importing the finished goods is a good
way to boost our manufacturing as well as reduce our Current Account Deficit.
Some Last Words
Some might say that this budget has been disappointing. Though
I am slightly disappointed with some of the aspects of this budget (like
leaving the tax slabs as is, or increase in service tax etc) I am also glad to
see the hike in infrastructure and agricultural spending. Hike in Defense will
also improve our capabilities to defend our motherland. If the proposed fiscal
deficit, economic growth and inflation numbers can be achieved, I would call
this budget a Success…
Before we wrap up, you may be wondering why I haven’t covered
anything related to individual income tax. That is because, this article has
already exceeded 4+ pages and I don’t want to add on more. Individual Income
Tax will be covered in a separate article.